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In-depth report of the basic chemical industry: 8 years of high turnover of the fluorine chemical industry
We believe that the fluorine chemical industry is expected to continue its prosperity in 2018. In recent years, the refrigerant capacity has continued to withdraw. Since the beginning of 17 years, due to the upstream fluorite supply contraction and the mid-stream HF refrigerant environmental protection high pressure to capacity, the price center of the entire fluorine chemical industry chain product has continued to move upward. We judge that in the future, under the support of environmental protection along the Yangtze River and retreating into the city, environmental protection pressure will only increase and supply will continue to shrink. The demand for fluorine terminals will be stronger, and the industrial chain will continue to be maintained.
Fluorite resources are scarce, the government limits production, and environmentally-friendly high-pressure compression output. Fluorite is a non-renewable resource. According to the existing disclosure, China's fluorite reserves are only enough for 11 years, which is the lowest in the world. The government has banned the opening of new mining licenses since 2003. In 2016, it will be fired again. Stone is included in China's "strategic minerals list." In addition, fluorite mining is a highly polluting industry, and the gradual increase in environmental protection policies has made fluorite production in short supply.
Hydrofluoric acid as a high-risk chemical, environmentally-friendly high pressure forced SMEs to withdraw production capacity, by-product waste acid expansion library to compress production. Hydrofluoric acid is a throat fortress in the fluorine chemical industry. As a high-risk chemical, hydrofluoric acid planning is difficult to enter the park. The Yangtze River environmental protection and the Qingdao Summit have a potential capacity of about 50%. The by-product waste acid is difficult to digest, and the small and medium-sized enterprises are constantly expanding. This round of hydrofluoric acid spreads has increased significantly and is expected to remain high.
Refrigerant supply is limited and rigidity requirements are still there. Supply end: affected by environmental protection, the third-generation refrigerant expansion probability is lower than expected, the second-generation refrigerant quota is affected by the policy continues to shrink; demand side: as of April 18, air-conditioning output cumulative year-on-year +12.9%, export volume Accumulated +13.7% year-on-year, the absolute growth rate is relatively high, and the refrigerator export volume has accumulated +4.0% year-on-year. In addition, China's huge maintenance market supports refrigerant demand is relatively rigid.
The supply and demand of fluoropolymers are tight, driving the industry chain to rise. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, domestic demand for fluoropolymers increased by 17%. It is expected that the growth rate of PTFE, FEP and PVDF will not be lower than the growth rate of more than 10% during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. 8%, 10% and 10%. At present, the domestic total production capacity of PTFE is 120,000 tons, and the annual demand is about 104,000 tons. The operating rate of the industry is relatively high. Under the demand and cost, the price of PTFE suspension material has increased by 37% to 78,000 yuan/ton in the past year.
Investment strategy: Continue to be optimistic about the high level of integration, strong self-sufficiency of raw materials, excellent environmental protection, and profitability is expected to continue to improve the fluorine chemical refrigerant leader, recommend Juhua shares, it is recommended to pay attention to Hong Kong shareholders Yue Group; upstream, it is recommended to pay attention The phoenix scarce standard goldstone resources.